Career Aspirations, Long-Term Goals

I mean, go for it if you want. But I've had at least one discussion with deeply knowledgeable people who are acquainted with those who run or have run institutional-size crypto hedge funds, and it seems that institutional consensus is that price manipulation played more of a role than you would think during crypto's first really impressive bull run. Now I haven't done the work myself, since I'm a vanilla equities guy. Once took a fintech class that explained blockchain mechanics from a high-level viewpoint, but nothing beyond that. But if actually accomplished quants are more or less bearish on trying to systematically on vol, I've got no reason to disagree with them.

Basically take it all with a grain of salt. I can do stats and probability, but I'm no expert in probability. Once again, a pure fundamentals guy -- and not just qualitative fundamentals as you've described with crypto. Business/financial fundamentals.

I will have a mostly relaxed senior position in an IT business. I will have a comfy, modern home somewhere nice. I will have a gaming room where my future girlfriend and I will have a glorious gaming / home cinema setup.

Sure, but if you want to trade this, what are your risk parameters? Say you make some spread on vol. Manipulation can be, or at least it used to be, quite potent. They're effectively mini-black swan events. Could you successfully systematically trade through this? What if you're using leverage? Then you would probably blow up, That's the real problem. You could make money 99% of the time, and that 1% of the time where price movements violate the constraints of your model could screw you.

Now if you're not going to execute systematically, and only trading one security, then your own judgment is your only risk model, of course.

Of course not, even a 53-55% hit rate would be decent. I never implied that prediction would need to be 100%. It's just that many models are unable to capture black swan-type events because there is no precedent for them. These sorts of events are what I characterize as in that "1%". This is obviously where Bayesian probability comes in handy. Also, I'm not talking leverage + directional trades. I'm talking leverage + hedging. But even when you're fully hedged, black swan events can still blow your fund up.

Also that last statement about judgment being a risk model isn't an argument, nor was it circular. It just means that your own discretion is the only thing keep your risk in check, that's all.

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